IMF: Tough time ahead for borrowers despite disinflation
Borrowers in both private and public sectors are in for tougher times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted.
The IMF hinged its forecast on the significant rise in inflation rate.
In a financial sector stability report released at the weekend, entitled: “Central banks must remain vigilant along the last line of disinflation”- IMF Director in charge of Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Adrian Tobias, said although the fight against inflation is entering its “last mile” with that central banks expected to ease monetary policy in the coming months, but borrowers will still have very tough time ahead.
According to a Debt Management Office (DMO) data, Nigeria’s total public debt stock stood at N97.3 trillion ($108.2 billion) as at December 31, 2023 while inflation rate stood at 33.2 per cent in March.
For private sector borrowers, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data showed that loans to private sector dropped to N71.23 trillion in March while Monetary policy Committee raised benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 24.75 per cent in March.
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Tobias stated that emerging markets debt issuers already face refinancing rates higher than interest rates on outstanding dollar-denominated sovereign bonds.
“More vulnerable emerging markets – those with credit ratings of B and CCC or below – face the largest increase in rates,” Tobias said, adding that an inflation-driven tightening of global financial conditions would make refinancing even more difficult.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘B-/B’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria. They also affirmed our ‘ngBBB+/ngA-2’ long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings. The outlook is stable.
